Syria's Lebanon Redeployment: Shifting Troops and Attitude
Summary
Syria began redeploying its Lebanon-based troops Sept. 21. While trying to avoid the appearance of buckling under pressure from the United States and some of its fellow Arab states, Damascus is signaling both Israel and Washington that it is ready to do business. If this process leads to a significant behavioral change on the part of the al Assad regime, it will represent yet another dividend of the Bush administration's invasion of Iraq.
Analysis
More than 1,000 of the some 20,000 Syrian troops based in Lebanon began dismantling their bases near Beirut to redeploy closer to the Syrian border or to leave the country altogether, a Lebanese official said Sept. 21. The official, who declined to be named, said Syrian troops have started moving from hilltop positions south of Beirut in the towns of Aramoun, Chuweifat, Damour, Doha and Khaldeh. The second phase of the operation involves a shift of troops from eastern and northern areas to the eastern part of Lebanon's Bekaa Valley or to the border. The redeployment is scheduled for completion in a few days.
With this massive redeployment, Syrian President Bashar al Assad is indicating to Israel and the United States that he is ready to strike a deal that could lead to the complete withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon.
This could signal Damascus' willingness to stand down from its non-cooperative stance toward the United States -- yet another example of the immense geopolitical shift in the region resulting from the U.S. ouster of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq. In essence, Syria is reacting to pressure from Washington. Although U.S. pressure on Syria had risen steadily since the Sept. 11 attacks, this move has more to do with the recent increase in pressure from the United States directly and from U.S. allies with influence on Syria.
In a Sept. 10 visit to Syria, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs William Burns strongly demanded that Syria not only pull its 20,000 troops from Lebanon, but also curb cross-border infiltrations from Syria into Iraq and end Syrian sponsorship of militant Palestinian groups.
This was followed by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's statement that Israel was not prepared to resume peace talks with Syria where they left off in 2000. Sharon rejected U.S. calls for the Jewish state to continue talks with Damascus, saying he does not believe Israel can afford to respond to Syrian demands on water and border issues.
The timing of this move is telling also in that it comes a week after Arab member states from the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council and Jordan made it clear they want Damascus to comply with the U.S.-sponsored U.N. Security Council resolution 1559, which called on Syrian troops to withdraw from Lebanon.
Perhaps the most significant precursor to the Syrian move was the recent surprise trip to Damascus by Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak. Stratfor argued this event would serve as a defining moment in a possible change in Syrian attitude toward its military presence in Lebanon.
All these events made clear to al Assad that the ball was in his court -- and that Syria was running out of options and allies. For its own health, Damascus had to comply with the demand to move out of Lebanon.
Syrian Ambassador to the United States Imad Mustapha confirmed the Syrian troop movements when he told United Press International on Sept. 21 the decision was the result of "greater Syrian confidence" in the situation in Lebanon. "This movement should make all parties concerned happy," he said.
The redeployment tells all parties concerned that Damascus is ready to engage in negotiations and no longer will insist on rigid conditions. That said, however, the move by Mubarak and al Assad to link a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon to an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights and the West Bank clearly means they will drive a hard bargain.
This is just the beginning of what surely will be a long process of intense negotiations. For now, this move further strengthens U.S. President George W. Bush as Election Day nears and also increases pressure on Syria's ally, Iran. Syria, it seems evident, has signaled that it no longer can afford to be belligerent.
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